While total global solar capacity will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade, the pace of installation growth will begin to slow in 2024 compared to the growth rate of recent years.

The head of Wood Mackenzie's global solar sector said that if the 2023 forecast is realized, the average annual growth in photovoltaic installed capacity from 2019 to this year will be 28%, with 2023 increasing by 56% compared with 2022.

However, on average, the current pace will remain unchanged, with no annual growth from 2024 to 2028, which will include some contraction years. Wood Mackenzie forecasts 270 GW of new solar capacity will be installed globally this year, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts 349 GW of new solar capacity in 2023.

The growth of the global solar market follows a classic S-curve. Growth in the steepest part of the curve has been rapid in recent years. Starting in 2024, the industry will pass an inflection point, characterized by a slower growth model. The global solar market is still many times larger than it was just a few years ago, but as the industry matures, it's natural to follow this growth path.